“双碳”目标下山东省耕地利用生态效率的时空演变及影响因素
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F323.211,X322

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青岛市科技惠民示范专项项目“高标准农田天空地一体化智慧监管技术与应用”(25-1-5-xdny-12-nsh)


Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in Shandong Province under “dual carbon” goals
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    [目的] 针对山东省在农业绿色低碳转型过程中耕地利用生态效率测算不全面,时空分异规律不明确和驱动机制未厘清的问题,科学测度并系统评价其耕地利用生态效率及其影响因素,为区域耕地生态治理与农业绿色低碳转型提供精准科学依据。[方法] 运用基于非期望产出的Super-SBM模型、Malmquist-Luenberger(ML)指数、趋势面分析及基准回归分析等方法,系统探讨了2010—2022年山东省耕地利用生态效率的时空演变及影响因素。[结果] ①山东省耕地利用生态效率处于较高水平(0.857)。研究期内整体呈“W”型波动下降趋势。要素投入与非期望产出冗余是制约其达到效率最优的主要瓶颈。在空间上呈现“西高东低,南北极化”的分异特征。②研究期内山东省耕地利用生态效率年均ML指数为0.995 2,效率值的下降是耕地利用经营管理水平和技术退步共同作用的结果,除济宁、威海、日照及聊城外,其余地市ML均小于1。③耕地利用生态效率变化受多因素协同驱动且存在显著区域异质性,其中,复种指数、城镇化水平及农业产业集聚因加剧资源环境压力而显著抑制效率提升,财政支农则通过改善耕地生产条件与推广绿色技术等显著促进效率。[结论] 山东省耕地利用生态效率时空分异显著,其波动下降由“管理退化”与“技术停滞”复合驱动,且影响因素呈现显著的空间异质性。未来应实施差异化耕地生态治理,进一步推动农业绿色低碳转型。

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    [Objective] In Shandong Province, a major grain-producing region, issues such as incomplete measurement of the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use(EECLU), unclear spatiotemporal differentiation patterns, and insufficiently clarified driving mechanisms during the green and low-carbon agricultural transformation were identified. EECLU and its influencing factors were scientifically measured and systematically evaluated in order to provide precise and scientific evidence for regional cultivated land ecological governance and green and low-carbon agricultural transformation. [Methods] The Super-SBM model based on undesirable outputs, Malmquist-Luenberger(ML) index, trend surface analysis, and benchmark regression analysis were employed to systematically examine the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of EECLU in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2022. [Results] ① The EECLU in Shandong Province was at a relatively high level(0.857). During the study period, it exhibited an overall W-shaped fluctuating downward trend. Redundancy in factor inputs and undesirable outputs were the primary bottlenecks restricting the achievement of optimal efficiency. Spatially, it exhibited a pattern of “higher efficiency in the west and lower in the east, with polarization between the north and south.”② The annual average ML index of EECLU in Shandong Province during the study period was 0.995 2. The decline in efficiency values resulted from the combined effects of cultivated land use management degradation and technological regression. Except for Jining, Weihai, Rizhao, and Liaocheng, the ML indices of the remaining prefecture-level cities were all below 1.③ Changes in EECLU were driven by the synergy of multiple factors and exhibited significant regional heterogeneity. Among these factors, the multiple cropping index, urbanization level, and agricultural industrial agglomeration significantly inhibited efficiency improvement by increasing resource and environmental pressure, while fiscal support for agriculture significantly promoted efficiency by improving cultivated land production conditions and promoting green technologies. [Conclusion] The spatiotemporal differentiation of EECLU in Shandong Province is significant. Its fluctuating decline is driven by the compound effects of “management degradation” and “technological stagnation”, and the influencing factors exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity. In the future, differentiated ecological governance of cultivated land should be implemented to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture.

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郑东杰,陈照亮,程秋月,管辉.“双碳”目标下山东省耕地利用生态效率的时空演变及影响因素[J].水土保持通报,2026,46(4):245-256,277

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-29
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-25
  • 出版日期: 2026-08-15