青岛市碳排放与生态系统服务价值的时空关系变化
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X171.1,X321

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山西省地质勘查建设与发展专项资金项目“遥感与GIS支持下的山西矿山生态环境监测与评价技术研究”(2023-011); 山西省青年项目“采煤对山西岩溶河流水-气界面碳通量影响研究”(202503021212277)


Spatiotemporal changes in relationship between carbon emissions and ecosystem service values in Qingdao City
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    摘要:

    [目的] 分析港口城市土地利用变化过程中,碳排放与生态系统服务价值(ESV)时空关系的演变规律,助力区域国土空间规划、生态文明建设及绿色可持续发展。[方法] 基于1990—2024年5期青岛市土地利用分类数据,整合能源消费指标,综合运用IPCC碳排放系数法、ESV当量因子法、双变量空间自相关模型等方法,分析土地利用变化过程中青岛市碳排放与ESV时空关系的变化规律。[结果] ①1990—2024年间青岛市土地利用发生了较大变化。建设用地增加1 478.13 km2,主要由耕地转化而来。林地先减少后增加,水域呈动态变化,草地和未利用地减少。②青岛市整体属于碳源,净碳排放呈动态变化。研究期间增加18.25×106 t,高值区域位于胶州湾周围经济发达地区,低值区域位于其四周。③ESV动态变化整体呈下降趋势。研究期间共计减少8.52×108元。ESV值胶州湾湿地、莱西市产芝水库等地高,周围低。④青岛市土地利用碳排放与ESV是更为复杂和动态的空间相关关系。负相关呈增加趋势,局部集聚现象显著。高低聚集区主要位于胶州湾北部和东部。[结论] 加大对林地、草地等碳汇地类的保护力度及生态修复,控制城市扩张速度,合理调整产业结构,以促进青岛市实现碳中和与保障生态安全。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The spatiotemporal evolution of the relationship between carbon emissions and ecosystem service value(ESV) during land use changes in port cities was analyzed in order to support regional territorial spatial planning, ecological civilization construction, and green sustainable development. [Methods] Based on five phases of land use classification data of Qingdao City from 1990 to 2024, combined with energy consumption indicators, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal relationship between carbon emissions and ESV during land use change using the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method, the ESV equivalent factor method, and the bivariate spatial autocorrelation model. [Results] ① Substantial land use changes occurred in Qingdao City. Construction land increased by 1 478.13 km2 during 1990—2024, which was mainly converted from cultivated land. Forestland first decreased and then increased, water areas showed dynamic changes, and grassland and unused land decreased.② Qingdao City was overall a net carbon source. Net carbon emissions exhibited dynamic changes, increasing by 18.25×106 t. High-value zones were concentrated in the economically developed areas around Jiaozhou Bay, while low-value zones were distributed in the surrounding regions.③ ESV changed dynamically, exhibiting an overall downward trend, with a total decrease of 8.52×108 yuan during 1990—2024. High ESV values were observed in areas such as the Jiaozhou Bay wetland and the Chizhi Reservoir in Laixi City, while lower values were found in the surrounding areas.④ The spatial correlation between land use carbon emissions and ESV in Qingdao City was complex and dynamic. The negative correlation showed an increasing trend, with significant local spatial clustering. High-low clustering zones were mainly distributed in the northern and eastern parts of Jiaozhou Bay. [Conclusion] It is necessary to strengthen the protection and ecological restoration of carbon sink land types such as forestland and grassland, control the speed of urban expansion, and appropriately adjust the industrial structure to promote carbon neutrality and ensure ecological security in Qingdao City.

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王甜,李金奎,宁永香,赵光辉,陈胜华.青岛市碳排放与生态系统服务价值的时空关系变化[J].水土保持通报,2026,46(4):297-309

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-02
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-25
  • 出版日期: 2026-08-15