澜沧江流域植被变化与驱动因素的定量分析
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Q948,X87

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国家重点研发计划项目”西南高山峡谷区水土流失综合防治技术与示范”(2022YFF1302903)


Quantitative analysis of vegetation change and driving factors in Lancang River basin
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    [目的] 分析澜沧江流域植被变化的时空演变规律,明确驱动因素,为流域生态保护和管理提供科学依据。[方法] 基于归一化差异植被指数(NDVI),采用Theil-Sen趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验对2000—2023年间的植被变化进行系统分析,并结合最优参数地理探测器探讨了自然因素与人类活动对植被空间差异的综合影响。[结果] 2000—2023年,澜沧江流域植被呈现出明显的改善趋势,大部分区域(74.61%)NDVI值呈上升趋势,特别是在云南省等低海拔地区,植被恢复明显。然而,流域北部和高海拔地区的植被表现为下降趋势,占比为25.39%。在空间分布上,呈现“南高北低”的空间分布格局。高程、土地利用类型和温度是影响植被空间分异的主导因子,其解释力均超过50%。且这些因子间交互作用解释力均高于单因子,相互作用共同决定了流域内不同区域植被的分布模式。另外,随着高程的增加,NDVI的改善趋势明显下降,植被恢复和生长受到气候条件的严重限制。[结论] 未来需要加强高海拔地区的生态保护与修复,实施适应性管理措施,制定更有效的政策以应对气候变化和人类活动对流域生态环境带来的影响。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The spatio-temporal evolution law of vegetation changes in the Lancang River basin was analyzed, in order to clarify the driving factors, and provide a scientific basis for the ecological protection and management of the basin. [Methods] The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in conjunction with Theil-Sen trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test were employed to systematically examine vegetation changes from 2000—2023. Furthermore, optimal parameter Geodetector was used to explore the combined effects of natural factors and human activities on spatial vegetation heterogeneity. [Results] During 2000—2023, the Lancang River basin exhibited a notable trend of vegetation improvement. In approximately 74.61% of the region, the NDVI values increased, with particularly marked recovery in low-altitude areas such as Yunnan Province. However, in northern and high-altitude regions of the basin, vegetation showed a declining trend, accounting for 25.39% of the area. The spatial distribution revealed a pattern of ‘higher in the south, lower in the north’. Elevation, land use type, and temperature were identified as the dominant factors influencing vegetation spatial variation, each explaining more than 50% of the variance. Moreover, the interaction among these factors exhibited greater explanatory power than any single factor, jointly shaping the vegetation distribution patterns across different areas of the basin. Additionally, the NDVI improvement trend significantly declined with increasing elevation, indicating that vegetation recovery and growth were severely constrained by climatic conditions at higher altitudes. [Conclusion] Strengthening ecological conservation and restoration efforts in high-altitude regions, along with implementing adaptive management strategies, will be essential for formulating more effective policies to mitigate the ecological impacts of climate change and human activities on the basin.

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赖翀,王小燕.澜沧江流域植被变化与驱动因素的定量分析[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(4):382-391

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-26
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-05
  • 出版日期: 2025-08-15