Coupling study on agricultural new quality productive forces and green technology innovation in China: measurement, spatiotemporal distribution and carbon emission reduction effects
[Objective] The coupling coordination relationship between agricultural new quality productive forces and green technology innovation were analyzed, in order to provide scientific basis for ensuring food security and ecological security, and for promoting the transition of agriculture from ‘quantity increase’ to ‘dual improvement in quality and efficiency’. [Methods] Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022, the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics were analyzed using a coupling coordination model and Moran’s index, and its carbon emission reduction effects were examined using the fixed effects model and spatial Durbin model. [Results] Temporally, the coupling coordination development of the 30 provinces in China and across the four major regions (eastern, central, western, and northeastern China) showed an overall upward trend but a slight decline in the past two years. Spatially, the coupling coordination development demonstrated a certain degree of spatial clustering. The number of provinces in the ‘high-high’ clustering zone increased slightly in the eastern region, while the improvement in the ‘low-low’ clustering zone in the western region remained insignificant. In terms of carbon emission reduction, empirical tests using measurement models confirmed that the coupling coordination development of agricultural new quality productive forces and green technology innovation could promote agricultural carbon emission reduction and had a significant spatial spillover effect. [Conclusion] It is recommended to develop agricultural new quality productive forces and green technologies tailored to local conditions, reduce inter-regional disparities, establish cross-regional coordination mechanisms to promote carbon emission reduction, and facilitate inter-regional exchange and collaboration.