中国农业新质生产力与绿色技术创新的耦合研究:测度、时空分布、碳减排效应
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F323,X323

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新疆生产建设兵团社科基金重点项目“供给侧结构改革背景下兵团农业经济高质量发展实现路径研究”(19ZD03);2024年铸牢中华民族共同体意识研究课题重点项目(ZL202412);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42371306)


Coupling study on agricultural new quality productive forces and green technology innovation in China: measurement, spatiotemporal distribution and carbon emission reduction effects
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    [目的] 研究农业新质生产力与绿色技术创新耦合协调关系,为保障粮食安全与生态安全,推动农业从“量增”转向“质效双升”提供科学依据。[方法] 基于2012—2022年中国30个省份面板数据,通过耦合协调模型和莫兰指数分析其时空分布特征,并通过固定效应和空间杜宾模型分析其碳减排效应。[结果] 全国及4大区域(东部、中部、西部、东北地区)的30个省份耦合协调发展总体呈现上升趋势,但近两年略有下降;耦合协调发展具有一定的空间集聚性,东部地区“高-高”集聚区省份稍有增加,西部地区“低-低”集聚区域提升不明显;农业新质生产力与绿色技术创新耦合协调发展能够促进农业碳减排且具有显著的空间溢出效应。[结论] 应因地制宜发展农业新质生产力和绿色技术,缩小地区间差异,建立跨区域协同机制以促进碳减排,促进区域间交流与协作。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The coupling coordination relationship between agricultural new quality productive forces and green technology innovation were analyzed, in order to provide scientific basis for ensuring food security and ecological security, and for promoting the transition of agriculture from ‘quantity increase’ to ‘dual improvement in quality and efficiency’. [Methods] Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022, the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics were analyzed using a coupling coordination model and Moran’s index, and its carbon emission reduction effects were examined using the fixed effects model and spatial Durbin model. [Results] Temporally, the coupling coordination development of the 30 provinces in China and across the four major regions (eastern, central, western, and northeastern China) showed an overall upward trend but a slight decline in the past two years. Spatially, the coupling coordination development demonstrated a certain degree of spatial clustering. The number of provinces in the ‘high-high’ clustering zone increased slightly in the eastern region, while the improvement in the ‘low-low’ clustering zone in the western region remained insignificant. In terms of carbon emission reduction, empirical tests using measurement models confirmed that the coupling coordination development of agricultural new quality productive forces and green technology innovation could promote agricultural carbon emission reduction and had a significant spatial spillover effect. [Conclusion] It is recommended to develop agricultural new quality productive forces and green technologies tailored to local conditions, reduce inter-regional disparities, establish cross-regional coordination mechanisms to promote carbon emission reduction, and facilitate inter-regional exchange and collaboration.

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王鹏程,廖升,吉泽男,何可.中国农业新质生产力与绿色技术创新的耦合研究:测度、时空分布、碳减排效应[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(6):269-279

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-28
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-31
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