1960—2024年吉林省不同量级降水时空变化特征
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松辽流域气象科技创新项目“基于机器学习和GIS技术的松辽流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险预估模型的建立”(SL202403)


Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of different grade precipitation in Jilin Province from 1960 to 2024
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    摘要:

    [目的] 分析吉林省1960—2024年各等级降水变化特征,为吉林省水土资源可持续管理、旱涝灾害风险防控提供科学依据。[方法] 基于吉林省1960—2024年47个气象站逐日降水资料,采用线性趋势分析、相关性分析和Hurst指数等方法,研究不同等级降水量、降水日数及降水强度时空变化特征及其趋势持续性。[结果] 研究期内,吉林省降水结构发生明显变化,小雨量和小雨日数(p<0.05)均呈减少趋势,暴雨量和暴雨日数显著增加(p<0.05)。除大暴雨强度略有下降外,其余等级降水强度均呈增强态势。中雨对总降水的贡献度最大(33.44%),小雨次之(33.14%);小雨发生率最高(83.11%),但其贡献度和发生率均呈下降趋势,暴雨的贡献度和发生率显著上升。总降水量变化主要受大雨影响,总降水日数变化由小雨日数主导,总降水强度与大雨、暴雨的量值与日数密切相关。空间上,各等级降水量与日数均呈东南高西北低的分布格局,但各等级降水强度空间异质性较大。值得注意的是,暴雨增加、小雨减少的降水结构转型在全省范围内普遍存在,但其强度存在区域差异。地理因子的交互作用对中小雨量及日数的空间分异控制显著;而暴雨以上等级降水更多地受局地天气系统影响,与地理因子关联性较弱。Hurst指数分析显示,除大暴雨强度未来变化可能逆转外,其余等级降水指标的历史变化趋势均具有较强的持续性。[结论] 吉林省降水结构正向“暴雨事件增加,小雨事件减少”的极端化方向发展。未来在区域水土安全与气象灾害防治研究及政策制定时应予以重视。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The variation characteristics of different precipitation grades in Jilin Province from 1960 to 2024 were analyzed in order to provide a scientific basis for the sustainable management of water and soil resources and the prevention and control of drought and flood disaster risks in the province. [Methods] Based on daily precipitation data from 47 meteorological stations in Jilin Province from 1960 to 2024, methods including linear trend analysis, correlation analysis, and Hurst exponent were employed to investigate the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and trend persistence of precipitation amount, precipitation days, and precipitation intensity across different grades. [Results] During the study period, the precipitation structure in Jilin Province underwent significant changes. Both light precipitation amount and light precipitation days showed decreasing trends(p<0.05), while rainstorm amount and rainstorm days increased significantly(p<0.05). Precipitation intensity exhibited an increasing trend for all grades except for heavy rainstorm intensity, which showed a slight decline. Moderate rain contributed the most to total precipitation(33.44%), followed by light rain(33.14%). Light rain had the highest occurrence frequency(83.11%). However, both its contribution and occurrence frequency showed decreasing trends, whereas those of rainstorms increased significantly. Changes in total precipitation amount were mainly influenced by heavy rain, changes in total precipitation days were dominated by light rain days, and total precipitation intensity was closely related to the amount and days of heavy rain and rainstorms. Spatially, precipitation amounts and days for all grades exhibited a pattern of higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest, while precipitation intensity showed considerable spatial heterogeneity across different grades. Notably, the transformation of precipitation structure characterized by increased rainstorm events and decreased light rain events was widespread across the province, albeit with regional variations in its intensity. The interaction of geofactors significantly controlled the spatial differentiation of light and moderate precipitation amounts and days. In contrast, precipitation of rainstorm grade and above was more influenced by local weather systems, showing weaker correlations with geofactors. Hurst exponent analysis indicated that, except for the future trend of heavy rainstorm intensity which might reverse, the historical change trends of other precipitation indicators all exhibited strong persistence. [Conclusion] The precipitation structure in Jilin Province is evolving towards a more extreme pattern characterized by increased rainstorm events and decreased light rain events. Greater attention should be paid to this issue in future research and policy-making related to regional water-soil security and meteorological disaster prevention.

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牛天一,宋爽,王宁,马梁臣,纪玲玲,胡瑞,赵怡凡.1960—2024年吉林省不同量级降水时空变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2026,46(2):178-190

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-25
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-13
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