融雪期微地形对土壤水分时空分布的影响及短期预测
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自然资源部部省合作项目“兵团2024山水林田湖草沙一体化保护和修复工程项目前期工作”(2024ZRBSHZ098);自然资源部国土整治中心项目“矿区生态修复关键技术(高咸水利用)推广应用”(E341010601)


Influence of microtopography on spatiotemporal distribution of soil moisture during snowmelt period and short-term prediction
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    [目的] 系统解析微地形条件下表层土壤水分非平稳动态特征,为干旱区生态修复的水分管理策略优化及自维持生态系统构建提供重要科学支撑。[方法] 基于连续监测数据与Pettitt检验,定量识别冻土消融期水分突变点并划分阶段;揭示微地形调控不同深度土壤水分动态的机制,构建雪-地形-水分-土壤响应链条;结合ARIMA(1,1,1)模型预测土壤水分变化趋势。[结果] ①融雪初期,修复区浅层(10,20 cm)土壤水分含量显著增加,最大值分别为0.312 m3/m3与0.199 m3/m3,平均增幅为22.1%和19.4%;对照区最大值分别为0.231 m3/m3与0.186 m3/m3,平均增幅为14.6%和12.5%。30 cm及以下土层水分补给较少,修复区与对照区差异不显著。②融雪中期,修复区10,20 cm土层水分含量逐渐下降,但仍高于对照区;30 cm与40 cm土层水分含量缓慢上升,最大值分别为0.155 m3/m3与0.139 m3/m3,对照区分别为0.127 m3/m3与0.129 m3/m3。③融雪后期土壤水分趋于稳定,潜水层水分下降。修复区浅层土壤水分波动较大,短命植物可利用水分脉冲快速完成生活史。④ARIMA(1,1,1)模型对10 cm与20 cm土壤水分预测效果良好,纳什效率系数分别为0.85与0.82,表明模型具备较高预测精度。[结论] 微地形修复可显著提升冻土消融期浅层土壤水分,增强短命植物早春萌发的水分保障。水平沟作为近自然修复手段,具有良好的生态调控潜力与推广价值。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The non-stationary dynamic characteristics of surface soil moisture under microtopographic conditions were systematically analyzed in order to provide important scientific support for optimizing water management strategies and constructing self-sustaining ecosystems in ecological restoration of arid regions. [Methods] Based on continuous monitoring data and the Pettitt test,abrupt change points of soil moisture during the frozen soil thawing period were quantitatively identified and stages were divided.The regulatory mechanisms of microtopography on soil moisture dynamics at different depths were revealed,and a snow-topography-moisturesoil response chain was constructed.The ARIMA (1,1,1) model was applied to predict soil moisture trends. [Results] ① During the early thawing period,shallow soil moisture (10 cm and 20 cm) in the restored area increased significantly,with maximum values of 0.312 m3/m3 and 0.199 m3/m3,and average increases of 22.1% and 19.4%,respectively.In the control area,the maximum values were 0.231 m3/m3 and 0.186 m3/m3,with average increases of only 14.6% and 12.5%.Moisture recharge in soil layers at 30 cm and below was relatively weak,with no significant difference between the restored and control areas.②During the mid-thawing period,soil moisture at 10 cm and 20 cm in the restored area gradually decreased but remained higher than that in the control area.Moisture at 30 cm and 40 cm in the restored area increased slowly,with maximum values of 0.155 m3/m3 and 0.139 m3/m3,respectively,while in the control area,the values were 0.127 m3/m3 and 0.129 m3/m3.③During the late thawing period,soil moisture stabilized,while groundwater moisture decreased.Shallow soil moisture in the restored area showed relatively large fluctuations,enabling ephemeral plants to rapidly complete their life cycle by utilizing moisture pulses.The ARIMA (1,1,1) model performed well in predicting soil moisture at depths of 10 cm and 20 cm,with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients of 0.85 and 0.82,respectively,indicating high predictive accuracy. [Conclusion] Microtopography restoration significantly enhances shallow soil moisture during the seasonal frozen soil thawing period,improving water availability for the early spring germination of ephemeral plants.Level trenches,as a near-natural restoration measure,demonstrate good ecological regulation potential and promotion value.

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梁畅,徐俏,叶尔那扎尔·伊热买克巴依,吴明强,徐海量.融雪期微地形对土壤水分时空分布的影响及短期预测[J].水土保持通报,2026,46(2):237-247

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-21
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-13
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