基于PLUS-InVEST模型的四川省乐山市碳储量时空变化及预测
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X171.1,F124.5,X24

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国家社会科学基金项目“山地丘陵农产品主产区种养关联的县域农业碳源/汇效应及调控机制研究”(17GBL137)


Spatiotemporal variation and prediction of carbon storage in Leshan City of Shichuan Province based on PLUS-InVEST model
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    [目的] 探究土地利用演变及其对碳储量的影响,为维持区域碳平衡和提高区域碳储量研究提供科学依据。[方法] 结合PLUS-InVEST模型分析2000—2020年乐山市碳储量时空特征,并预测2030年自然发展情景和生态保护情景下的碳储量情况,最后利用重心转移模型探究碳储量重心空间变化。[结果] ①2000—2020年该市碳储量呈现增长趋势,共增加2.33×106 t,其中,各地类贡献的碳储量依次为:林地>建设用地>水域>草地>未利用地>耕地。②2030年2种情景下的碳储量均呈增加趋势,其中,自然发展情景增加2.43×106 t,生态保护情景增加2.58×106 t。③近20 a来该市碳储量重心整体向偏西方移动3 121.86 m,移动范围在沙湾区内。自然发展和生态保护情景下碳储量重心也在沙湾区内移动,分别向东南移动1 236.62 m,向东北移动4 226.55 m。[结论] 土地利用变化和碳储量变化具有一致性,固碳能力强的地类对碳储量影响明显,通过控制该地类的转出来实现区域生态环境保护。

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    [Objective] The evolution of land use and its impact on carbon storage were investigated, in order to provide a scientific basis for maintaining regional carbon balance and improving regional carbon storage. [Methods] The PLUS-InVEST model was employed to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon storage in Leshan City from 2000 to 2020. The carbon storage under the natural development scenario and the ecological protection scenario in 2030 was predicted. Finally, the center-of-gravity shift model was used to explore the spatial variation of the center of gravity of carbon storage. [Results] ① From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage in the city showed an increasing trend, with a total increase of 2.33×10⁶ t. The contributions of different land use types to carbon storage were ranked as follows: forest land > construction land > water bodies > grassland > unused land > cultivated land. ② In 2030, carbon storage under both scenarios was projected to show an increasing trend. Specifically, it was expected to increase by 2.43×10⁶ t under the natural development scenario and by 2.58×10⁶ t under the ecological protection scenario. ③ Over the past 20 years, the center of gravity of carbon storage in the city shifted westward by 3 121.86 m, with the movement occurring within the Shawan District. Under the natural development and ecological protection scenarios, the center of gravity of carbon storage moved within the Shawan District, shifting 1 236.62 m to the southeastward and 4 226.55 m to the northeastward, respectively. [Conclusion] Land use change and carbon storage change are consistent, and land types with strong carbon sequestration capacity have a significant impact on carbon storage. Regional ecological environmental protection can be achieved by controlling the transfer of these land types.

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杨茹荔,罗怀良,桑子榕.基于PLUS-InVEST模型的四川省乐山市碳储量时空变化及预测[J].水土保持通报,2026,46(1):260-270

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-23
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-01
  • 出版日期: 2026-02-15