沂蒙山区农业碳排放时空特征与脱钩弹性
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X171.1,F124.5,X24

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山东省自然科学基金项目“基于土地-水资源-农业-碳排放耦合关系的山东省种植结构多目标优化路径研究”(ZR2024QD163); 教育部人文社会科学研究项目“中国式现代化视角下中国革命老区乡村转型机制与发展路径研究”(24YJA630088)


Spatiotemporal characteristics and decoupling elasticity of agricultural carbon emissions in Yimeng Mountainous area
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    [目的] 探究沂蒙山区农业碳排放时空演变特征及其与农业经济发展的关系,为推动县域低碳农业发展、探索“双碳”目标实现路径提供参考依据。[方法] 基于2000—2023年临沂市面板数据,确定土地管理、水稻种植、畜禽肠道发酵和粪便管理4类碳源,采用碳排放系数法与Tapio脱钩模型探究临沂市农业碳排放时空演变特征及其与农业经济发展间的脱钩弹性关系。[结果] ①临沂市农业碳排放量总体呈现先增后降的变化趋势,2011年农业碳排放量达到1.52×106 t,2023年下降至1.21×106 t,较2011年降低20%。种植业和畜牧业碳排放强度均整体呈下降趋势,波动范围分别为0.22~0.74 t/万元和0.23~1.02 t/万元。②各碳源碳排放量及其占农业碳排放总量的比例大小依次为土地管理(7.84×105 t,56.39%)、肠道发酵(3.02×105 t,21.67%)、粪便管理(2.40×105 t,17.17%)、水稻种植(6.65×104 t,4.77%)。③临沂市各县区农业碳排放量及排放强度经历了由升到降的演化进程,且呈现一定的区域差异,总体表现出“中部低,南北部高”空间分布格局。④临沂市农业碳排放与农业经济发展关系不断改善,脱钩状态经历了从“扩张负脱钩”到“弱脱钩”再到“强脱钩”的演变过程,2023年大部分县区实现了强脱钩。[结论] 临沂市农业降碳减排取得一定成效,各县区应因地制宜制定减排政策和措施,持续推进农业低碳生产与农业经济协调发展。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions and their relationship with agricultural economic development in the Yimeng Mountainous area were investigated in order to provide a reference for promoting low-carbon agricultural development at the county level and exploring the pathways to achieve the ‘dual carbon' goals. [Methods] Based on the panel data of Linyi City from 2000 to 2023, four types of agricultural carbon sources, namely, land management, rice cultivation, livestock and poultry enteric fermentation, and manure management, were identified. The carbon emission coefficient method and the Tapio decoupling model were used to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in Linyi City, as well as the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic development. [Results] ① The total agricultural carbon emissions in Linyi City increased at first and then decreased. In 2011, the agricultural carbon emissions peaked at 1.52×106 t and decreased to 1.21×106 t in 2023, which was a 20% reduction compared to 2011. The carbon emission intensity of both the planting industry and animal husbandry showed an overall downward trend, with the ranges of 0.22 to 0.74 t/10~4 yuan and 0.23 to 1.02 t/10~4 yuan, respectively.② The carbon emissions from each carbon source and their proportion in the total agricultural carbon emissions ranked as follows: land management(7.84×105 t, 56.39%), livestock and poultry enteric fermentation(3.02×105 t, 21.67%), manure management(2.40×105 t, 17.17%), and rice cultivation(6.65 ×104 t, 4.77%).③ The agricultural carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity in various counties(districts) of Linyi City experienced an evolutionary process from increase to decrease, showing certain regional differences. The overall spatial distribution pattern was characterized by ‘low in the center and high in the south and north'.④ The relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic development in Linyi City improved continuously. The decoupling state evolved from ‘expansive negative decoupling' to ‘weak decoupling' and then to ‘strong decoupling'. In 2023, most counties and districts achieved strong decoupling effects. [Conclusion] Linyi City has made certain achievements in agricultural carbon reduction. All counties(districts) should formulate emission reduction policies and measures according to local conditions to continuously promote the coordinated development of low-carbon agriculture production and the agricultural economy.

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张蓓蓓,王梁,赵杰,马颖,任丹丹,刘淑华,姚凯慧.沂蒙山区农业碳排放时空特征与脱钩弹性[J].水土保持通报,2026,46(2):260-269

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-26
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-01
  • 出版日期: 2026-02-15