季节性干旱对中国陆地生态系统碳-水耦合机制的影响
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国家重点研发计划项目“大尺度生态质量与生态服务评估大数据智能挖掘技术和关键参数网格化平台建设应用示范”(2023YFF1303703)


Impacts of seasonal drought on carbon-water coupling mechanism in China's terrestrial ecosystems
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    [目的] 分析季节性干旱对生态系统水分利用效率(WUE)及其碳-水耦合机制的影响,为增强植被固碳能力、优化水资源配置以及制定生态系统保护对策提供科学依据。[方法] 基于2001—2023年中国陆地生态系统数据,采用趋势分析与相关性分析等方法,系统评估WUE的时空演变特征、季节变化规律及其对干旱的响应机制。结合XGBoost-SHAP可解释性机器学习模型与LOWESS拟合方法,进一步量化干旱胁迫因子的非线性响应特征与阈值效应。[结果] 中国极端干旱事件发生频率及植被WUE均呈显著季节性变化特征。春季极端干旱发生频率最高且影响范围最广;WUE在夏季最高,其变化由春季的总初级生产力(GPP)与蒸散发协同驱动,逐步转变为夏秋季的“GPP主导”格局,并呈现出自南向北递减的空间格局。春季WUE受土壤水分和蒸散的共同调控,而夏秋季则主要由土壤水分控制。[结论] 干旱对WUE的影响存在显著的季节差异,并主要受土壤水分条件制约。加强主控季水分管理并优化植被结构,是提升生态系统抗旱韧性、应对气候变化与生态风险的关键策略。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The impact of seasonal drought on water use efficiency(WUE) of ecosystems and its carbon-water coupling mechanisms was analyzed in order to provide a scientific basis for enhancing vegetation carbon sequestration capacity, optimizing water resource allocation, and formulating ecosystem protection strategies. [Methods] Based on data from China's terrestrial ecosystems from 2001 to 2023, the spatiotemporal dynamics and seasonal patterns of WUE and its responses to drought were systematically assessed using trend and correlation analyses. By integrating the XGBoost-SHAP interpretable machine learning model with LOWESS fitting, the nonlinear response characteristics and threshold effects of drought stress factors were further quantified. [Results] The frequency of extreme drought events and the WUE of vegetation in China both exhibited pronounced seasonal patterns. Extreme droughts occurred most frequently and extensively in spring, while WUE reached its peak in summer. Its seasonal variations were jointly driven by gross primary productivity(GPP) and evapotranspiration in spring, gradually shifting to a ‘ GPP-dominated' pattern in summer and autumn, with a decreasing gradient from south to north. In spring, WUE was co-regulated by soil moisture and evapotranspiration, whereas in summer and autumn, it was primarily controlled by soil moisture. [Conclusion] The impact of drought on WUE exhibits significant seasonal differences and is primarily constrained by soil moisture conditions. Enhancing water management during the key controlling seasons and optimizing vegetation structure are essential strategies for improving ecosystem drought resilience and mitigating climate change and ecological risks.

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刘祥平,胡卓玮,王永财,王咪,侯文星.季节性干旱对中国陆地生态系统碳-水耦合机制的影响[J].水土保持通报,2026,46(2):270-283,305

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-19
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-29
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-13
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