[Objective] The positive role of ecological management projects in the ‘carbon reduction-pollution reduction-green expansion-economic growth' system of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River was analyzed, and its spatiotemporal evolution patterns, influencing mechanisms, and future development trends were systematically revealed, in order to provide a scientific basis for the regional coordinated advancement of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and economic growth. [Methods] Based on data from 2003 to 2023, an evaluation system comprising 30 indicators was constructed. The entropy method, coupling coordination degree model, spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model, and ARIMA prediction model were comprehensively employed to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns, driving mechanisms, and future trends of coupling coordination in this region. [Results] The results showed that:① the mean coupling coordination degree(0.44—0.75) showed an upward trend during the study period. However, significant inter-provincial and intra-provincial differences were observed. Hubei Province had the highest coupling coordination degree(0.82), while Hunan Province lagged relatively behind(0.74).② The driving factors exhibited spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The level of digital economy and industrial structure upgrading served as a positive driving factor, while the contribution of technological investment was not significant. Government intervention exerted a certain inhibitory effect due to the conflict between administrative governance and marketization.③ The high consistency between the actual and predicted values in 2023 confirmed the reliability of the future trend prediction. It was projected that by 2030, the coupling coordination degree of core cities such as Wuhan, Changsha, and Nanchang would approach or exceed 0.85. However, the growth rate of small and medium-sized cities would be slow, and inter-provincial disparities would narrow. [Conclusion] From 2003 to 2023, the coupling and coordinated development level of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and economic growth in the region has been continuously increasing and is expected to maintain an upward trend. Significant inter-provincial and intra-provincial differences are observed in development levels within the region. It is recommended to strengthen the radiating role of core cities, promote industrial transformation and the application of scientific and technological achievements, improve the ecological compensation mechanisms, and implement targeted policies based on the spatiotemporal differences of driving factors to facilitate regional coordinated development.