土地利用和气候变化对河北省水生态系统服务的影响
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河北省社会科学基金项目“‘大占补’政策背景下河北省山前平原区‘林耕置换’资源潜力研究”(HB25GL027)


Effects of land use and climate change on water-related ecosystem services in Hebei Province
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    [目的] 定量评估未来不同土地利用变化和气候变化情景下河北省水生态系统服务(WRESs)的演变特征及其驱动因素,揭示其多尺度不确定性,为区域水生态系统管理提供科学依据。[方法] 整合MRI-ESM2-0气候模型、FLUS和InVEST模型,评估气候变化和土地利用变化对河北省水源涵养量(WC)和水土流失量(SE)的综合影响,并揭示多尺度不确定性。[结果] 2024—2050年,河北省水源涵养量(WC)在2种气候情景下总体呈上升趋势。SSP245情景下先增长后稳定,SSP585情景下持续增长。水土流失量(SE)整体下降,在SSP245情景下稳步减少,在SSP585情景下表现为先升后降。气候变化在影响WRESs方面起主导作用,对WC和SE的贡献率分别为99.30%和93.14%,其影响随着时间的推移逐渐减小。土地利用变化对WC的贡献随着时间的推移而下降,而对SE的贡献虽然较小,但逐渐递增。气候变化驱动的不确定性通常高于土地利用变化,所有尺度的不确定性均随着时间的推移而降低。[结论] 河北省未来水生态系统服务总体呈“水源涵养增强,水土流失减弱”的趋势,气候湿化与生态保护的协同作用显著提升了区域水文调节与生态稳定性。强化生态修复与分区管控将是提升区域水安全与应对气候风险的关键路径。

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    [Objective] The evolution characteristics and driving factors of water-related ecosystem services(WRESs) in Hebei Province under land use and land cover change(LUCC) and climate change(CC) scenarios in the future were quantitatively evaluated, and their multiscale uncertainties were revealed, in order to provide a scientific basis for regional water ecosystem management. [Methods] This study integrated the MRI-ESM2-0 climate model, the future land use simulation(FLUS) model, and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs(InVEST) model to evaluate the integrated effects of CC and LUCC on water conservation(WC) and soil erosion(SE) in Hebei Province, and to reveal their multiscale uncertainties. [Results] From 2024 to 2050, WC in Hebei Province showed an overall upward trend under both climate scenarios. Under the SSP245 scenario, WC increased first and then stabilized, while it continuously increased under SSP585. SE exhibited an overall declining trend, decreasing steadily under SSP245 but first increasing and then decreasing under SSP585. CC played a dominant role in influencing WRESs, with its contributions to WC and SE reaching up to 99.30% and 93.14%, respectively. However, its influence gradually weakened over time. The contribution of LUCC to WC declined over time, while its contribution to SE, though smaller, gradually increased. Uncertainty driven by CC was generally higher than that driven by LUCC, and overall uncertainty decreased over time across all scales. [Conclusion] Water-related ecosystem services in Hebei Province are projected to show an overall trend of “enhanced water conservation and reduced soil erosion”. The synergistic effects of climate humidification and ecological protection significantly improve regional hydrological regulation and ecological stability. Strengthening ecological restoration and implementing zonal management are key pathways to enhance regional water security and mitigate climate risks.

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郭逸欣,胡永翔,尚国琲,张霞,陈方琪,李紫怡,邸思媛,刘航.土地利用和气候变化对河北省水生态系统服务的影响[J].水土保持通报,2026,46(2):389-404

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-26
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-13
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