吉林省西部地区新增耕地变化及其驱动机制的多尺度探测
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国家自然科学基金面上项目“吉林西部生态脆弱区水-能源-粮食系统可持续性评价与协同优化研究”(42071275)


Newly cultivated land changes and multi-scale detection of their driving mechanisms in western Jilin Province
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    [目的] 分析吉林省西部地区新增耕地时空变化及其驱动机制的尺度效应,划分耕地保护分区,为区域差异化耕地整治与精准管控提供科学支撑。[方法] 基于2000—2024年6期土地利用数据,采用空间自相关、地理探测器、SOFM聚类等方法,系统分析多尺度下新增耕地的驱动机制,并划定耕地开发保护分区。[结果] ①区域耕地规模总体呈“先减后增”特征,2010年后新增耕地面积持续增加,至2023年恢复至3.51×106 hm2。新增耕地空间上高度集聚,全局Moran’s I在0.293~0.415之间。②驱动因子表现出显著的尺度效应。县域尺度以后备耕地为主(q=0.618);乡镇与村尺度强调居民点可达性和水资源条件的重要性;5 km格网尺度中,景观格局因子成为核心。③人口密度等社会经济因子与耕地状态因子交互作用显著。④吉林西部耕地开发与保护分区特征差异显著。生态约束脆弱区主要分布于东部与西北部,面临较强的自然环境制约,新增耕地潜力有限;耕地重点保护区集中在交通便利、耕地利用稳定的地区,需重点加强基本农田保护;耕地潜力开发区后备耕地资源丰富,适宜开展耕地整治与扩展;新增耕地重点管控区主要位于城乡交界地带,需严格执行土地开发管控与生态保护政策。[结论] 吉林西部新增耕地集中分布在研究区西部与西南部等耕地密集地区,驱动因子的尺度效应显著,社会经济因子与耕地状态因子交互作用显著。因此,应实施差异化管控措施,优化新增耕地布局及协调粮食安全与生态保护。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The spatiotemporal evolution and scale-dependent driving mechanisms of newly cultivated land(NCL) in western Jilin Province were analyzed, and cultivated land protection zones were delineated, in order to provide a scientific basis for spatially differentiated cultivated land reclamation and precise management. [Methods] Based on land use data from six periods between 2000 and 2024, methods including spatial autocorrelation analysis, geodetector, and self-organizing feature map(SOFM) clustering were used to systematically examine the multi-scale driving mechanisms of NCL and to delineate cultivated land development and protection zones. [Results] ① The total cultivated land area showed a pattern of “decrease followed by an increase”. NCL increased steadily after 2010, reaching 3.51×106 hm2 by 2023. Spatially, NCL was highly clustered(global Moran's I: 0.293—0.415).② The driving factors exhibited significant scale effects. Reserve cultivated land availability was the dominant factor at the county level(q= 0.618), while settlement accessibility and water resource conditions were more influential at the township and village levels. At the 5 km grid scale, landscape pattern factors became the core drivers.③ Significant interactive effects were identified between socioeconomic factors such as population density and cultivated land condition factors.④ Four distinct functional zones were delineated: ecologically constrained and vulnerable zones mainly in the east and northwest, where natural constraints strongly limited the potential of NCL; cultivated land priority protection zones in areas with convenient transportation and stable cultivated land use, where strengthened protection of basic cultivated land was required; cultivated land potential development zones with abundant reserve cultivated land resources suitable for reclamation and expansion; and NCL key control zones primarily in urban-rural fringes, where strict land development control and ecological protection policies were necessary. [Conclusion] NCL in western Jilin Province is concentrated in cultivated land-dense areas in the western and southwestern parts of the study area. The driving mechanisms exhibit pronounced scale effects, and the interactions between socioeconomic and cultivated land condition factors are significant. Therefore, differentiated management measures should be implemented to optimize the layout of NCL and coordinate food security with ecological protection.

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冯培越,刘文新.吉林省西部地区新增耕地变化及其驱动机制的多尺度探测[J].水土保持通报,2026,46(2):405-416

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-26
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-13
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