According to meteorological factor and underlying surface condition of the watershed both Jinsha river and Jialing river in Yangtze upstream river, the probability of Yangtze upstream river changing into second Yellow river are studied based on surface erosion, sediment transportation, water and soil loss, as well as human activity. It shows that the meteorological character is one of the key factors for producing the sediment yield in the watershed, but that the surface erosion and the stream load of Yangtze upstream river have been mainly influenced by unreasonable social economic activities. Because hydro thermal process and geomorphic element have relatively stabilization, adding developing soil and water comprehensive control until recently decade, the stream load in Yangtze upstream river would not evidently change during a considerably long time. Meanwhile some useful countermeasures for preventing soil and water loss are also suggested.