Occurrence of Slope Debris Flow as Self-organization Criticality and Its Prediction and Forecast
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    Abstract:

    Slope debris flow is a natural hazard constantly observed in the mountain area. Taking the Beibei of Chongqing City as an example,the paper analyzes the self-organization criticality of solid loose materials,and the criticality of geomorphology and rainfall while slope debris flow occurs.From viewpoint of self-organization(criticality),non-linear interaction exists between different subsystems in the formation of slope debris flow,and causes the system to develop naturally to a state of self-organization criticality.Under triggering by storm,slope debris flow occurs eventually.There exists a power correlation between its magnitude and frequency,which is a behavioral sign of debris flow as self-organization.In addition,occurrence law of slope debris flow can be predicted and forecasted through the power correlation.

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彭涛,徐刚,夏大庆.坡面泥石流暴发的自组织临界特性及其预测预报[J].水土保持通报英文版,2006,(3):104-108

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History
  • Received:April 20,2005
  • Revised:
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  • Online: November 26,2014
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