Pressure-state-response（P-S-R）model was used to perform the standardization of 21indexes,to determine index weights and to construct an ecological security evaluation model.By taking BaojiCity as an example,ecological safety problems in Baoji City from 1991to 2009were analyzed.Change of ecological security in the area was studied in detail by using dynamic ecological security model.Finally,grey system budget model GM （1,1）based on the grey system theory was used to forecast ecological security inthe next decade.Results showed that（1）ecological security value for the city in the past 19years was reduced year by year,specifically,the value was reduced from 0.650in 1991to 0.434in 2009,with an averagereduction by 0.01749%;（2）the pressure-state-response model was used to forecast ecological securitysituation in the next decade.From 2012to 2021,ecological security value will maintain the reducing trendand be reduced to 0.317by 2021.