Taking Jiangsu Province as an example,an index system of social-economic system was established based on the analysis on the time series of ecological deficit(ED) from 1985 to 2009.An ED dynamic prediction model was then developed using the conjunction of STIRAPT model,VIP value and the partial least square regression(PLS) method.The results demonstrated that the ED of Jiangsu in the plan period of "the 12th five-year plan" could increase from 1.156 1×108 hm² in 2009 to 1.418 4×108 hm² in 2015.ED per capita could also increase from 1.496 7 hm² to 1.768 8 hm² in the same time period,significantly higher than the global level(0.400 0 hm²).The classical environmental Kuznets curve(EKC) hypothesis could not explain well in the ED of Jiangsu Province.The VIP values showed that the many factors exerted strong influences,in an descending order of significance on ED as: ratios of primary and secondary industry in GDPtotal cultivated areaGDP per capitastudent to teacher ratio in higher educationbed number in health care unitsvolume of goods transportationtotal population.Based on these analyses,recommendations including transforming economic growth pattern,increasing total cultivated area,controlling the volume of goods transportation,and restraining rapid population growth,were proposed to slow down the increment of ED and to achieve the long-term development goals in Jiangsu Province.