Response of Drought and Flood Disasters to Climate Change in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
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    Abstract:

    According to 52-year precipitation data from 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from their establishments in 2012, the mathematical analysis methods such as the trend line method and 5-year moving average method were applied to analyze the precipitation variation characteristics in more than 50 years, and the precipitation Z index and the precipitation anomaly indicators of plus or minus 20% points were also used to analyze the characteristics of droughts and floods in the region, then a trend judgment of the droughts and floods was made based on the symmetry of information forecast theory and commensurable calculation method. The results showed:(1) The precipitation in more than 50 years of Ningxia region was reduced at a rate of 8.57 mm/10 a, and the arid trend was obvious since 1990s;(2) The drought and flood disasters occurred alternately, the frequency of drought and flood was 32.7% and 28.7%, respectively, and it was only 38.5% in a normal year;(3) The droughts and floods occured with obvious characteristics of symmetry cycle, the drought years may occur in 2014 and 2015, floods may occur in 2017.

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杨蓉,延军平.宁夏旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持通报英文版,2014,(5):272-277

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History
  • Received:September 12,2013
  • Revised:September 28,2013
  • Adopted:
  • Online: April 05,2016
  • Published: