Research on Driving Factors of Environment Pollution Based on Co-integration Analysis and Vector Autoregressive Model
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    Abstract:

    [Objective] To analyze the driving mechanism of environmental pollution, and privide support for economic derelopment and enviromental planning in Henan Province. [Methods] To interpret the dynamic changes in the environmental pollution of He'nan Province and its relationships with some driving forces based on co-integration analysis, error-correct model, impulse response function, and variance decomposition. [Results] Over all, environmental pollution had long-term co-integration relationship with GDP per capita, proportion of secondary industry, total population, foreign direct investment and government regulation, and the error correction mechanism existed. The impulse response analysis showed that GDP per capita, proportion of secondary industry and total population aggravated environmental pollution, while foreign direct investment had slightly positive impacts and government regulation has insignificant effects. According to the results of variance decomposition, total population was the most important factor for environmental pollution, followed by proportion of secondary industry and GDP per capita. [Conclusion] Rationalizing the population distribution and optimizing industrial structure is the future development orientation for environment pollution control.

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马孟华,宋文博,丁艳喜,孟庆香,郭子龙,尚一珂.基于协整理论和VAR模型的河南省环境污染驱动因素研究[J].水土保持通报英文版,2015,35(3):162-167

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History
  • Received:April 18,2014
  • Revised:April 28,2014
  • Adopted:
  • Online: April 05,2016
  • Published: