[Objective] This paper aimed to reveal the driving factors of impervious surface(IS) expansion in Panlong River basin, and to quantize the expansive responses of IS to the values of these factors. Upon these, a simulation of the expansion in the Panlong River basin was conducted to provide some bases for ecological improvement scheme. [Methods] Dempster-Shafer(D-S) evidence theory was used to described the spatial data and to integrate it into the basic probability assignment function based on the quantitive relationship between the existing IS information and the multiple spatial data by data-driven way. With the basic probability assignment functions, the belief, disbelief, ignorance, plausibility functions were obtained by merging multiple spatial data. [Results] Panlongjiang River basin was taken as an example to verify the validity with D-S evidence theory for the research on IS expansion properties, and the simulation accuracy reached 78.04%. [Conclusion] In predicting IS expansion, the D-S evidence theory to describe and integrate multiple spatial data was better than the traditional logistic regression model.