A Study on Prospect of Urbanization Influence on Cultivated Land Resources in Anhui Province Based on Combined Forecasting Model
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    Abstract:

    [Objective] This study explored the influences of urbanization on the cultivated land resources in Anhui Province in order to provide theoretical base for policy making in urbanization development and cultivated land protection.[Methods] The reduced area of cultivated land caused by urbanization was calculated by using the logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI) decomposition method. By using SPSS software, the coupling functional relationship between urbanization and the decline in cultivated land area was investigated by curve estimation based on the optimum goodness of fit. According to the Logistic regression model, the evolution trend of urbanization in Anhui Province was predicted. Moreover, based on the obtained coupling relationship between urbanization and cultivated land resources as well as the evolution trend of urbanization, the impacts of urbanization on the cultivated lands were estimated.[Results] The results indicated that, during the period from 1996 to 2011, the area of cultivated land reduced at a rate of approximately 1097.87 hm2 per year due to the urbanization in Anhui Province, and every 1% increase in urbanization rate resulted in 795.20 hm2 decline in the area of cultivated land. The quadratic curve fitting was optimal for describing the relationship between urbanization and the cultivated land resources. The urbanization of the population in Anhui Province was expected to reach to 58.44% and 68.25% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Specifically, before 2020, due to the effects of urbanization, the cultivated lands were expected to reduced by 3804.94 hm2 per year, and every 1% increase in urbanization rate would result in 2549.37 hm2 decline in cultivated land area. From 2021 to 2030, the cultivated lands were expected to be reduced by 11179.42 hm2 per year, and every 1% increase in urbanization rate would result in 11395.94 hm2 decline in cultivated land area.[Conclusion] The impacts of the urbanization on cultivated land are expected to be intensified, and the protection of cultivated land will be a great challenge in the future.

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张乐勤.基于组合模型的安徽省城镇化演进对耕地影响前景研究[J].水土保持通报英文版,2015,35(5):144-148,154

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History
  • Received:November 12,2014
  • Revised:December 13,2014
  • Adopted:
  • Online: April 05,2016
  • Published: