Diagnosis on Ecological Security of Cultivated Land Based on Entropy Method and Grey Prediction Model
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    Abstract:

    [Objective] To compensate for the defects in the evaluation index system and the used methods in the diagnosis on the cultivated land ecological security in order to analyze the ecological security level of cultivated land.[Methods] On the basis of defining the cultivated land ecological security, the evaluation index system for cultivated land ecological security was developed using the PSR(pressure-state-response) model, and then an empirical analysis was conducted in Sichuan Province by entropy method and grey prediction model.[Results] The ecological security of cultivated land in Sichuan Province was gradually improved from critically safe to safer level from 1999 to 2013, but the level of "safer" was not high in 2013. The pressure index and status index generally showed a downward trend, while the response indexes showed a upward trend. Crucial constraints on the improvement of cultivated land ecological security include fertilizer load per unit of cultivated land, cultivated land per capita, pesticides load per unit of cultivated land, land reclamation rate and soil erosion. The ecological security level of cultivated land in Sichuan Province would show a steady upward trend from 2014 to 2018.[Conclusion] These methods are suitable in the evaluation of cultivated land ecological security because the evaluation index system based on the PSR model can accurately reflect the relationship among various elements of the cultivated land ecological security, while the entropy method and grey prediction model can detect the problems in the cultivated land ecological security.

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郑华伟,夏梦蕾,张锐,刘友兆.基于熵值法和灰色预测模型的耕地生态安全诊断[J].水土保持通报英文版,2016,36(3):284-289,296

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History
  • Received:October 30,2015
  • Revised:December 20,2015
  • Adopted:
  • Online: July 12,2016
  • Published: