[Objective] Taking Zhangjiakou City as a case, the purpose of this study was to analyze quantitatively the ecological sustainable development of Zhangjiakou City in 2003-2013, and to predict the trend for decision basis of ecological system structure optimization and ecological construction and management.[Methods] Revised three-dimensional model of ecological footprint was adopted to calculate its dynamic changes of consumption and supply of all land types from 2003 to 2013. And GM(1,1) gray predictive dynamic model was constructed to predict the trend of ecological sustainable development in the next seven years.[Results] From 2003 to 2013, biocapacity per capita in Zhangjiakou City decreased from 1.460 7 hm² to 1.321 0 hm²; ecological footprint per capita increased from 2.271 6 hm² to 5.490 0 hm²; ecological deficit per capita increased from 1.845 9 hm² to 4.671 9 hm²; ecological footprint depth per capita increased from 5.336 2 hm² to 7.254 4 hm², and ecological footprint size per capita increased from 0.425 7 hm² to 0.747 0 hm².Meanwhile, ecological footprint per capita of fossil fuel land, construction land, water area, arable land, grassland and forest land showed a trend of increase. Expect for grassland and forest land, ecological carrying capacity per capita of other ecological productive lands were decreasing. Construction land, arable land and forest land presented a state of ecological surplus, and their ecological footprint depth per capita were in natural growth stage. However, fossil fuel land, water area and grassland were in the condition of ecological deficit, ecological footprint depth per capita of water area and grassland present an increasing trend. In the period of 2014-2020, ecological footprint per capita were predicted in a rise trend; whereas, ecological carrying capacity per capita would decline year after year.[Conclusion] Therefore, in order to realize the sustainable development of local economy, society and ecological environment, some major counter measures of reducing ecological deficit and alleviating the pressure of ecological environment should be adopt positively, such as promoting the use of clean energy, controlling the population quantity, increasing the ecological land area, etc.