Application of Multiple Driving-Factors Prediction Model for Land Use Structure Change Based on Logistic-Markov Model
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    Abstract:

    [Objective] The objective of the paper is to investigate the changes in land use structure and driving forces of land use change, and develop predicting method. It will provide a reference for land use decision, especially for inhibiting construction land expansion and optimizing urban & rural land use structure with social and economic development. [Methods] We used principal component analysic(PCA), Logistic and Markov methods to detect the driving forces of land use change, and developed predicting methods based on mechanism and relations of state transition probability matrix of land use structure and driving factors. [Results] At Taixing City of Jiangsu Province, which is located in the “Yangtze River Delta” economic region, we measured the multiple driving-forces of changes in land use structure including urban development, economic policy, market and management. The land expansion by the urban industrial and mining increased by 25.85%, and the cultivated land was reduced by 22.21%. We also predicted the land use structure in 2010—2020, and the prediction accuracy was increased by 0.52% in study area. [Conclusion] The prediction model based on multiple driving-factors can explain relations between land-use change and its driving forces, improve prediction accuracy, and provide a new method for analyzing regional land use change.

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余德贵,吴群.基于Logistic-Markov方法的土地利用结构变化多因素驱动预测模型研究与应用[J].水土保持通报英文版,2017,37(1):149-154,160

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History
  • Received:May 08,2016
  • Revised:June 09,2016
  • Adopted:
  • Online: March 23,2017
  • Published: