Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Structure of Yangzhou City Based on Systems Dynamics Model
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    Abstract:

    [Objective] This manuscript aimed to simulate and forecast the land use structure under multiple development scenarios of Yangzhou City in Jiangsu Province, as well as to explore the paths to realize them, which were expected to provide considerable scientific references for land use planning and formulating.[Methods] The system dynamics(SD) model was used to simulate the land use system.[Results] The main land use types would vary under different scenarios. Under the protection of farmland scenario, the arable land area would increase; while under the ecological protection and economic development scenarios, the arable land would decline slowly. Either urban industrial and mining land, or land for traffic or water conservancy area would achieve stable growth in all three scenarios, but the growth in the economic development scenario would be quicker than that under the other two scenarios. The forest land area increase sharply under the scenario of ecological protection, but remain would not change or even decrease slightly in the other two scenarios. Under the scenario of farmland protection, urban expansion and the occupation of cultivated land should be under control. Besides that, unused land development and rural residential land consolidation should be strengthened to replenish cultivated land. In the ecological protection scenario, the ecological service value of waters, beaches should be protected. This might help to adjust industrial structure, and transform the traditional GDP to green GDP.[Conclusion] SD model can not only simulate the land use change under different scenarios, but also can reveal the complex nonlinear relationship between land use and socio-economic system, which is conducive to the sustainable use of land resources regulation.

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胡宗楠,李鑫,楼淑瑜,康建荣.基于系统动力学模型的扬州市土地利用结构多情景模拟与实现[J].水土保持通报英文版,2017,37(4):211-218

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History
  • Received:November 07,2016
  • Revised:November 09,2016
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 12,2017
  • Published: