Ecosystem Service Value Analysis and Trend Prediction in Yangtze River Delta
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    Abstract:

    [Objective] This paper examined the spatio-temporal variations in the value of ecosystem services and then predicted it to provide support for formulating compensation policy in ecological environment construction and future urban development.[Methods] Based on land use data and relevant statistical data in the Yangtze River delta from 2000 to 2014, with the method proposed by Costanza wherein the values of ecosystem services are calculated with regard to the value coefficients of ecosystem services per unit area in the Chinese terrestrial ecosystem and the sensitivity analysis, this paper examined the spatio-temporal variations in the value of ecosystem services and then predicted it by Markov model.[Results] The total value of ecosystem services decreased from 130 389 million yuan in 2000 to 129 425 million yuan, reduced by 0.74%. In addition, the ecosystem service value of water supply, recreation and culture function and waste treatment increased while other ecosystem functions declined. From the perspective of spatial analysis, the ecosystem service values of Changzhou, Nanjing, Ninbo, Taizhou, Taizhou, Yangzhou City increased, while values of other cities decreased. The land use structures of the Yangtze River delta in 2015 and 2017 were predicted using the Markov model. The trends of woodland and cultivated land will maintain a continual increase while the construction land will be in a continual decrease in the coming three years. The total ecosystem services value will have a decrement of 276.65 million yuan.[Conclusion] Therefore, the importance of ecological service value should be given more consideration in future land adjustment, especially for the protection of cultivated land and water and improvement of land utilization intensity. it is very important to control the occupancies of cultivated and forest land by construction, to continually increase the effort of afforestation and maintain the function of ecosystem.

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吴爱林,陈燕,燕彩霞,罗婵,宋新山.长江三角洲生态系统服务价值分析及趋势预测[J].水土保持通报英文版,2017,37(4):254-259,265

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History
  • Received:October 15,2016
  • Revised:December 22,2016
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 12,2017
  • Published: