[Objective] The growing coal mining scale and depth easily lead to the occurrence of coalmine water disasters. Consequently, to assure coal mining in a safe and efficient way, mine water discharge is needed to be fully understood.[Methods] According to the physiographic, geological conditions of the researched area and water abundance distribution as well, this paper acquired a full knowledge of the hydrogeological condition of mines. By applying the groundwater flow numerical simulation to the 3₁^# coal seam of the first mine area of the No. 2 coal mine of Nalinhe, this paper established a mine discharge forecast model and its sensitivity was analyzed by enumerating different hydrogeological parameters of the permeability media of all levels. Upon that, the amount of the mine discharge has been forecast.[Results] The groundwater table drop depths will be 32.30 m and 47.72 m respectively, the confined groundwater level drop depths will be 530.37 m and 564.63 m respectively, and the mine water yields will be 57 994 m³/d and 86 240 m³/d respectively at the ends of 5th and 11th year.[Conclusion] If the mine drainage in the first mining area is drained and the drop depth get more and more great, the selection of model parameters will have great influence on the prediction results.