[Objective] The functional characteristics of ecological service and the variation trend of key ecological functional areas(Dujiangyan City) were analyzed and predicted to provide a scientific basis for environmental protection and goal determination of rational urban development for this region.[Methods] Based on the land cover data of three Landsat remote sensing images in 1995, 2007 and 2014, calculation method of ecosystem service value from Costanza and the 2002 edition value equivalent method of proposed by Xie Gaodi in 2002 for regional correction, and combing coefficient of sensitivity, we discussed the changes of Dujiangyan's ecosystem service value from 1995 to 2014. Using the Grey Dynamic Model (1,1), the development trend of ecosystem service value in Dujiangyan City were forecast.[Results] ① In the study area, forest and farmland were two main factors, which accounted for more than 80% of the total area. The land cover changed a lot in 1995-2014, and the ecological land reduced. ② The total value of ecosystem services decreased by 629.46 million yuan during 1995-2014 in Dujiangyan City. Forest was the most valuable ecosystem in the area, which accounted for more than 83% of the total value, followed by farmland, water, grass and unused land. Water conservation and waste gas treatment were two most prominent ecological services, which accounted for more than 56% of the ecosystem services in this area. ③ The GM (1,1) predicted the land cover change and ecosystem services value in the study area from 2021-2035. The results suggested that during this period, ecosystem services value will be slowly increased by 136.6 million yuan in the study area, and the average annual growth rate is 0.17%.[Conclusion] The increase of the traffic mainly caused the reduction of the regional ecosystem service value, leading to the decrease of ecological land area. The increase of those land cover types with high ecological values, such as forest and water is an effective measure to maintain and improve regional ecological functions.