[Objective] Quantitative evaluation and prediction of land carrying capacity and diagnosis of its obstacle factors were carried out to provide a scientific basis for improving the land carrying capacity of Anhui Province, and also to provide new ideas for the evaluation of regional land carrying capacity.[Methods] Based on the DPSIR model, the evaluation index system of land carrying capacity in Anhui Province was constructed. The TOPSIS method and obstacle degree model were used respectively to evaluate the land carrying capacity and diagnose the key obstacle factors in Anhui Province in the past 2006-2015 years. The GM(1,1) model was used to predict the change trend of land carrying capacity in Anhui Province in the next 5 years.[Results] The results showed that the land carrying capacity of Anhui Province had gone through the change course of first descending and then rising in the past 2006-2015 years which was the same as the pressure and state subsystem, and the influence and response subsystem showed a significant fluctuation trend. In the next 5 years, the carrying capacity of the pressure and the state subsystem will experience decreasing year by year, which will result to a low level of carrying capacity which is needed to be paid attention to. During the study period, the amount of industrial wastewater discharge was always the primary factor that restricted the increase of land carrying capacity in Anhui Province. The proportion of environmental protection investment to GDP and the output of industrial solid waste were two important constraints.[Conclusion] Although the level of land carrying capacity of Anhui Province is on the rise generally, limited by the low level of carrying capacity of pressure and state subsystem, the land carrying capacity of Anhui Province is still at an intermediate level.