Critical Rainfall of Landslides at Zunyi City in Different Geological Hazard Prone Regions
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    Abstract:

    [Objective] The objectives of this study were to determine the critical rainfall of landslide and establish the threshold model of landslide in different geological hazard prone areas of Zunyi City in order to provide scientific basis for landslide prediction in this area.[Method] Hourly precipitation data from 2010 to 2016 were collected from automatic meteorological stations according to 59 landslides of Zunyi City in the Northern Guizhou Province. According to the duration and type of rainfall, the landslide were classified by using statistical analysis in different geological regions and the prediction model of threshold was established and assessed.[Results] Heavy rainfall of more than 10 mm/h and 20 mm/h generally occurred on the day of landsliding, but the duration of rainfall in the middle susceptible area was longer than in the high susceptible area. The uniform pattern of rainfall is the main pattern. For the the high susceptible area, the forecasting accuracy of the threshold model was the best using the parameters the maximum rainfall of 1 hour during the landsliding day and the cumulative rainfall of two days before the landsliding day. Therefore, the maximum rainfall of 1 hour during the landslidubg day was the triggering rainfall. For the middle susceptible area, the forecasting accuracy of the threshold model was the best using the parameters of the maximum rainfall of 3 hours during the landsliding day and the cumulative rainfall of the landsliding day. Therefore, the maximum rainfall of 3 hours was the triggering rainfall.[Conclusion] The critical rainfall of landslide varied among different geological regions. According to the new landslide information, the identified critical rainfall forecasting model is tested and evaluated. If the forecasting model is inaccurate for the new landslide, the landslide discriminant line must be adjusted so that the adjusted prediction model accurately predicts the landslide.

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李忠燕,田其博,张东海,严小冬.遵义市不同地质灾害易发区滑坡临界雨量研究[J].水土保持通报英文版,2018,38(6):217-223,239

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History
  • Received:July 05,2018
  • Revised:July 09,2018
  • Adopted:
  • Online: January 07,2019
  • Published: