System Dynamics Simulation Analysis of Sustainable Development of Cultivated Land Resource
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X32;F301.21

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    Abstract:

    [Objective] The ecological restoration effects of cultivated land on grain yield and soil heavy metal content were explored in order to provide a certain basis for the decision-making of cultivated land sustainable utilization.[Methods] Taking Tianjin City as a case study, a system dynamics model of cultivated land ecological restoration (CLERSD) was constructed by using system dynamics method. Six scenarios were set under of three strategies:green development, sustainable development and ecological restoration strategy. The deployment of cultivated land and ecological land in Tianjin City from 2016 to 2030 was simulated under different land use patterns.[Results] In the green development strategy, although increasing the use of chemical fertilizer and pesticide could increase grain yield in a short time, it was not beneficial in the long term, and more cultivated land would need ecological restoration because of damage. In the strategy of sustainable development, increasing investment could increase grain production and promoted sustainable agricultural development. Increasing sewage irrigation could meet the demand of crop growth water in the short term, but it would lead to the increase of cadmium content, as a result, more arable land would need to be converted to ecological land. In the strategy of ecological restoration, planting the plants with strong metal enrichment ability could rehabilitated the damaged cultivated land in a relatively short time, and reduced the content of heavy metals in soil and increased the area of cultivated land.[Conclusion] In agricultural production, it is possible to maintain food security and sustainable green development of agriculture by changing the input of pesticides, fertilizers and capital investment, reducing sewage irrigation and ecological restoration of cultivated land.

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张雪花,滑永胜,韩成吉.耕地资源可持续发展的系统动力学仿真分析[J].水土保持通报英文版,2019,39(3):144-150,155

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History
  • Received:December 19,2018
  • Revised:January 13,2019
  • Adopted:
  • Online: July 04,2019
  • Published: