A Study of Land Use Change and Simulation of a Ningxia Eco-economic Belt Along Yellow River Based on CA-Markov Model
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F301.2

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    Abstract:

    [Objective] The characteristics of land use change from 2009 to 2017 were analyzed, and the spatial pattern of land use in 2025 of Ningxia eco-economic belt along the Yellow River was simulated in oreder to provide guidance for land development, utilization and protection of the studied area, and to provide reference for the preparation of land space planning.[Methods] Based on the time scale and spatial scale, this study analyzed the changes in land use from 2009 to 2017, calculated the probability matrix for land transfer, and used the CA-Markov model to simulate the land use pattern in 2025 of Ningxia eco-economic belt along the Yellow River based on natural development, land planning, cultivated land and ecological protection scenarios.[Results] All kinds of construction and the cultivated land and other agricultural land exhibited a continuous increase in the Ningxia eco-economic belt along the Yellow River from 2009 to 2017, meanwhile, the garden land, forest land, grassland, water area, natural reservations were reduced. Except for water area and other construction land, the conversion probability of other types of land to urban and rural construction land were generally higher, especially the conversion probability of cultivated land to urban and rural construction land was the highest, reaching 10.65%.[Conclusion] Based on the three scenarios, the land use structure of the Ningxia eco-economic belt along the Yellow River in 2025 is still dominated by grassland, arable land and natural reservations. However, with the acceleration of urbanization and the continuous improvement of infrastructure, the increase in the land used for urban and rural construction, transportation and irrigation works is much more.

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冯丽媛,米文宝,马国庆.基于CA-Markov模型的宁夏沿黄生态经济带土地利用变化及模拟研究[J].水土保持通报英文版,2019,39(5):218-222,230

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History
  • Received:April 11,2019
  • Revised:May 08,2019
  • Adopted:
  • Online: November 16,2019
  • Published: