Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Seasonal Climate Change Trends Over Loess Plateau During 2015-2100
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P467

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    Abstract:

    [Objective] Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the climate change trends during 2015-2100 in the four seasons for the Loess Plateau were studied to provide a scientific basis for formulating adaptive strategies to cope with global climate change.[Methods] Based on the monthly climate datasets of 27 general circulation models (GCMs) from 2015 to 2100, the Delta method was used to process and evaluate the dataset of the Loess Plateau. At the same time, the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator test were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the future climate change trends of this region in all seasons.[Results] ① Among the 27 GCMs used, NorESM1-M and GFDL-ESM2M were the most suitable climate models for simulating the downscaling data of the future monthly mean temperature and precipitation of the Loess Plateau in all seasons. ② There was no significant trend of the mean temperature over the Loess Plateau from 2015 to 2100 in the spring and autumn under the representative concentration pathways(RCP)2.6 scenario, and in the remaining scenarios, the temperature showed a significant upward trend. Precipitation during the four seasons showed a significant upward trend in the spring under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, while there was no significant trend in the remaining emission scenarios. ③ Under the three kinds of RCP scenarios, the mean temperature of the four seasons increased in the beginning, middle, and end of the 21st century, compared with the climate average; however, the precipitation increased only in spring. ④ Under the three kinds of RCP scenarios, significant differences in the spatial distribution of the mean temperature and precipitation in all seasons were observed.[Conclusion] The climate of the Loess Plateau has a significant response to global warming, and further research is needed on the causes of climate change in the Loess Plateau region in a specific season in the future.

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任婧宇,赵俊侠,马红斌,彭守璋,李炳垠.2015-2100年黄土高原四季气候变化的时空分布趋势预测[J].水土保持通报英文版,2019,39(5):262-271

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History
  • Received:March 02,2019
  • Revised:April 07,2019
  • Adopted:
  • Online: November 16,2019
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