[Objective] The land subsidence in Shanghai City was verified and predicted, in order to provide reference for scientific regulations of underground construction and groundwater exploitation.[Methods] Based on monitoring data of groundwater extraction volumes, land subsidence and layered deformation of soils, the correlations between land subsidence and groundwater exploitation, deformation of soils layers were investigated. Based on the characteristics and causes of land subsidence in Shanghai City, a polynomial distribution lag model (PDL model) was established, considering groundwater extraction volumes and deformation of aquifer Ⅳ.[Results] ① There was a high positive correlation between cumulative groundwater exploitation, cumulative layered deformation of aquifer Ⅳ and cumulative land subsidence. However, due to the creep of sand and slow water release from aquitards, lagging effect existed between land subsidence and groundwater extraction volumes as well as layered deformation of aquifer Ⅳ. ② Calculated results using PDL were accurate with small relative error and better fitting effect when verifying land subsidence. ③ Based on the current groundwater extraction and recharge pattern and layered deformation of aquifer Ⅳ, the prediction showed that slight ground lift would occur in 2019-2024.[Conclusion] There is a high correlation between land subsidence and groundwater extraction volumes and soil deformation in Shanghai City, and controlling groundwater exploitation can effectively alleviate land subsidence.