Responses of Summer Maize Yield to Atmospheric Circulation in He'nan Province Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition
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S162.5;P426

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    Abstract:

    [Objective] The responses of summer maize yield to atmospheric circulation in He'nan Province was studied in order to provide the theoretical support for regional food security. [Methods] Based on the summer maize yield data in 17 cites of He'nan Province during 1988—2017 and 15 kinds of large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (LACI) data, the spatio-temporal variability of summer maize yield were evaluated. [Results] ① By using principal component analysis, He'nan Province could be divided into four sub-regions with different evolution characteristics of unit yield, such as north, southeast, west, and central regions. ② Based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), there were periodic oscillations of 2.5—3.3, 5—6, 7.5—10 years for yield series in the study area, and the short-term fluctuation in each sub-regions tended to moderate after 2004. ③ There were significant correlations between the periodic oscillation of yield and LACI in each sub-region. ④ The average relative error of the linear model based on previous LACI and year was ranged from 4.6%~9.3%. ⑤ The yield fluctuations in southeast and central areas were more sensitive to LACI, and the higher Pacific interdecadal oscillation (PDO) in October and November was the key precursor signal for yield reduction in the coming years. [Conclusion] The early atmospheric circulation anomalies has an important indicative effect on the fluctuation of summer maize yield in the study area, which can be effectively used for yield forecasting.

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田宏伟,闵俊杰,黄进,张方敏.基于集合经验模态分解的河南省夏玉米产量波动对大气环流的响应[J].水土保持通报英文版,2020,40(4):176-182

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History
  • Received:March 15,2020
  • Revised:April 19,2020
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 16,2020
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