Analysis of Spatio-temporal Evolution of Land Use in Multiple Scenarios Based on Markov-DLS Model in Jiangxi Province
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F301.2

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    Abstract:

    [Objective] The characteristics of future land use structure and spatial patterns under different scenarios were studied in order to provide a decision-making reference for the realization of optimal utilization of regional land spatial pattern and protection of ecology and environment. [Methods] Based on the Markov-DLS model and referring to the evaluation results of production-living-ecological functions of different land use, the characteristics of land use structure and spatial patterns under a balanced development scenario, a food security scenario, and an ecological priority scenario in Jiangxi Province in 2030 were analyzed. [Results] ① The accuracy of land use structure predicted by the Markov-DLS model in 2015 was more than 90%, and the accuracy of the spatial layout simulation was 96%. In addition, the kappa coefficient was more than 92%. ② Cultivated land increased only under the food security scenario, with an increase of 0.48%. Construction land showed a growth trend under the three scenarios, and the growth rate was the fastest in the balanced development scenario, reaching 1.15%. Ecological land (such as forest land, grassland, water area, and unused land) showed an overall downward trend in all three scenarios, but the decline was the smallest in the ecological priority scenario (only -0.36%). ③ The spatial patterns of forest land and grassland in the eastern, southern, and western mountainous areas of Jiangxi Province were relatively stable, while construction land showed a trend of development along shorelines of rivers and lakes, especially along the Ganjiang River, the Yangtze River, and the north bank of Poyang Lake. ④ On the whole, under the ecological priority scenario, the ecological space land (forest land, grassland, water area, and unused land) were protected, the area proportion was the largest of all the scenarios, and the relative decline rate was the smallest. [Conclusion] ① The Markov-DLS model has good applicability for predicting and simulating future land use changes at the provincial scale. ② Changes in land use structure in Jiangxi Province in 2030 under the balanced development scenario, the food security scenario, and the ecological priority scenario show obvious differences. ③ The spatial pattern of the land under the three development scenarios for Jiangxi Province in 2030 shows obvious characteristics of overall consistency and local differences.

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田益多,梅昀,陈银蓉.基于Markov-DLS模型的江西省多情景下土地利用时空演变分析[J].水土保持通报英文版,2021,41(3):218-227

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History
  • Received:December 14,2020
  • Revised:February 24,2021
  • Adopted:
  • Online: July 08,2021
  • Published: