[Objective] The relationship between vegetation cover change and environmental factors in the oasis in northern margin of Tarim Basin was studied in order to provide scientific reference for ecological management and restoration of the study area. [Methods] Based on MODIS/NDVI data from 2000 to 2018, combined with meteorological factors and human activities data in the same time series, the temporal and spatial variation of oasis in the northern fringe Tarim Basin were analyzed by using trend line analysis, correlation analysis, ArcGIS spatial overlay and through path analysis methods, to explore the influence of environmental factors on the NDVI changes of vegetation in the oasis area. [Results] ① From 2000 to 2018, each cover types of oasis in the Northern Tarim Basin was in a fluctuating upward trend, with a propagation rate of 0.033/10 a. The propagation rate of vegetation cover types from high to low were cultivated plants, shrubs, broad-leaved forest, meadow, desert, grassland, wetland, coniferous forest and alpine vegetation. ② Temperature change had a negative effect on NDVI of oasis vegetation in the northern margin of Tarim Basin, and the negative correlation area accounted for 72.15% of the oasis area. ③ Among the factors of human environment, the total output value of forestry and animal husbandry were the main controlling factors of NDVI. [Conclusion] Temperature had the strongest effect on NDVI, followed by gross output value of forestry and animal husbandry, and the effect of total output value of animal husbandry on NDVI is weak. In addition, the residual path coefficient is 0.26, which indicates that there are some other factors that have not been taken into account and need further study.