Zoning of Highway Geological Hazard Susceptibility and Meteorological Forecast Model in Linzhi City
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X43, P642.22

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    Abstract:

    [Objective] The susceptibility zoning and meteorological forecast model of highway geological hazards were studied in order to provide a theoretical basis for implementing the meteorological forecast of geological hazards along the highways in Linzhi City, Tebit Autonomous Region. [Methods] Firstly, eight zoning factors, including fault density, soil type, slope, valley density, annual precipitation, land use, bare rock ratio and distance from rivers, were selected in the 15 km buffer zone along the highway in Linzhi City. The coefficients of each zoning factor were determined by the information and logistic regression method, and the zoning model of geological hazard susceptibility was obtained. Secondly, based on the daily precipitation data of the rainfall occurrence day, the first day, the second and and the third day before the landslide hazards, a meteorological forecast model of geological hazards was established by using logistic regression method. [Results] The susceptibility of most areas in the 15 km buffer zone along the highway in Linzhi City was less than 0.4, and the closer to the road, the greater probability of geological hazard susceptibility. The accuracy rate of the model was 85.71%, and the failure rate was 14.29%. [Conclusion] Affected by topography, geomorphology and precipitation data, the prediction results of the established model may deviate from the actual situation, but it can reflect the basic trend.

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陶星宇,柳锦宝,黄志刚,巴桑,卓玛,陈军,肖斌,高瑜莲,费晓燕.林芝市公路地质灾害易发性区划及气象预报模型[J].水土保持通报英文版,2022,42(2):195-202,209

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History
  • Received:October 08,2021
  • Revised:November 09,2021
  • Adopted:
  • Online: May 26,2022
  • Published: