[Objective] The land use change of the Pengqu basin of the northern footof Qomolangma in the near-and medium-term future was simulated in order to provide a scientific reference for land use planning in this area. [Methods] We used the Markov-FLUS model to simulate land cover changes based on land cover data of the Pengqu basin (at the northern foot of Mount Qomolangma) from 2010 to 2020. Three future simulation scenarios included free development, arable land conservation, and ecological protection in the Pengqu basin, and took 12 driving factors of human and natural factors into account. [Results] ① The overall accuracy between actual land cover in the Pengqu basin in 2020 and the simulated scenario from the Markov-FLUS model was 90% and the kappa coefficient was 0.82. The accuracy was considered to be high, and the model could be used to simulate future scenarios in this region; ② The five land cover types in the Pengqu basin changed from 2010 to 2020, with the most significant changes occurring in woodland and grassland areas. The woodland area increased by 778.16 km² and the grassland area decreased by 726.89 km²; ③ The simulation results for the future scenarios of the Pengqu basin showed that under the free development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection scenarios, the largest change in land cover area in the near-term was mainly concentrated in grassland and other land types, while the largest change in land cover area in the medium-term was mainly concentrated in grassland, forest land, and other land types. Regardless of the near-term or the medium-term future time period, the cultivated land area would continue to decrease under the scenario of cultivated land protection. [Conclusion] The implementation of cultivated land protection policy can further promote the sustainable development of the Pengqu basin. In the future, attention should be given to the development and protection of cultivated land in the Pengqu basin. If ecological types are not coordinated in protected areas, ecological diversity may be damaged under ecological system transformation.