[Objective] The ecological carrying capacity of water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin was evaluated in order to provide a theoretical basis for regional water resource management and planning. [Methods] The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and driving mechanism of the ecological footprint of water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin from 2007 to 2020 were calculated and analyzed using the theory of ecological footprint of water resources and the logarithmic mean Divisia index method (LMDI), The grey forecasting model GM(1,1) was applied to predict the change trend of the ecological footprint of water resources from 2021 to 2030. [Results] The ecological footprint of water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River over the study years was much greater than the ecological carrying capacity, and the ecological deficit of water resources was serious. Both the ecological footprint of water resources and the ecological deficit showed a fluctuating and decreasing trend over years, and the efficiency of water use was gradually improving. Agricultural water consumption was the largest factor accounting for the ecological footprint of water resources. The Yellow River Delta was the area with the greatest ecological pressure on water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin. Zibo, Jinan, Zhengzhou, and Tai’an City had relatively little ecological pressure. The economic effect had a major positive role in the change of the ecological footprint of water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin, and the technical effect had a major negative role. The forecast results indicated that the ecological deficit of water resources per capita in the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin would decrease from 0.387 to 0.359 hm²/person from 2021 to 2030. [Conclusion] The water use efficiency in the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin has gradually increased over time, and the ecological pressure on water resources has been relieved to a certain extent under the comprehensive effects of rapid development of productivity and optimization and adjustment of water-using structures. However, the sustainable utilization of water resources in the future is still under very serious pressure due to the large deficit in the ecological base of water resources in this region. It is therefore urgent to further strengthen the overall management of water resources in order to help the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin achieve high-quality sustainable development.