[Objective] Changes in land use and carbon stocks under different scenarios were evaluated to provide a scientific basis for optimizing ecological services and sustainable development. [Methods] Changes in land use and carbon storage under different scenarios were simulated and extrapolated by comprehensively using the PLUS and InVEST models. [Results] ① Similar land use changes were observed for both the natural evolution and ecological protection scenarios. Areas of farmland, grassland, and water decreased over time. There was a rapid expansion of construction land. The rate of construction land expansion was much higher for the natural evolution scenario (27.70%). Under the farmland protection scenario, changes in land use were different from those in the other two scenarios because of a decrease in woodland area and a rapid expansion in construction land area. ② Carbon storage in Kunming City decreased over time, with 3.37×10⁸ t in 2000, 3.34×10⁸ t in 2010, and 3.28×10⁸ t in 2020. By 2030. The carbon storage under the farmland protection and ecological protection scenarios will be relatively more than that under the natural evolution scenario. Adopting protective measures can effectively control the reduction in carbon storage; ③ The decrease in carbon storage caused by land use changes was 9.15×10⁶ t, and there was high consistency between land use changes and carbon storage changes. [Conclusion] Implementing a policy of farmland and ecological protection, limiting the expansion of construction land from, farmland and woodland, and optimizing land use structure will slow the loss of regional carbon storage.