[Objective] The ecological and environmental effects of land use transition and their development trends were analyzed in order to provide a basis for promoting land use transition, low-carbon cycle development, and realizing the goal of “double carbon”. [Methods] We used land use data for Zunyi City of Guizhou Province in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 and spatial analysis technology for this study. [Results] ① Land transformation from 2005 to 2020 was mainly manifested by the interconversion between carbon sink sites and the transformation of carbon sink sites to carbon source sites. ② Net carbon emission increased from 5.99×10⁵ tons in 2005 to 9.87×10⁶ tons in 2020, an increase of 9.27×10⁶ tons (1 548.15%). However, the incremental amount gradually decreased, and the rate of increase gradually decreased. ③ The value of ecosystem services in Zunyi City increased from 7.64×10¹⁰ yuan in 2005 to 7.73×10¹⁰ yuan in 2020, showing a fluctuating upward trend, with a total increase of 9.14×10⁸ yuan and a growth rate of 1.2%. ④ The gray prediction model showed that the net carbon emissions and ecosystem service value for Zunyi City will continue to increase in the future, with both showing a consistent upward trend. [Conclusion] Zunyi City continues to facing considerable pressure in terms of the ecological environment, and needs to increase efforts to enhance the value of ecosystem services while striving to achieve the goal of carbon peaking.