[Objective] The spatial and temporal dynamic law and future change trend of groundwater level in Shanshan County of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region during 2011—2020 were studied in order to provide scientific support for the determination of groundwater overexploitation control and a groundwater level control index in this area. [Methods] The dynamic types of groundwater were divided by combining cluster analysis and correlation analysis. The spatio-temporal variation of groundwater level and its main driving factors were analyzed by time series analysis, geostatistics, and multivariate logistic regression model. The R/S analysis method was used to predict the future variation trend of groundwater level. [Results] ① Groundwater dynamic types were divided into exploitation type, runoff type, runoff-exploitation type, and evaporation type. The dominant type was exploitation type, accounting for 75% of cases. ② From 2015 to 2018, the groundwater level in the north basin changed from a downward trend to an upward trend. A downward trend was observed after 2018. The groundwater level in the south basin had been declining, and the rate of decline slowed significantly after 2015. ③ The main driving factors of groundwater level change in the north basin were groundwater exploitation and surface runoff, accounting for 68.46% and 28.37% of cases, respectively. The main driving factor in the south basin was groundwater exploitation, accounting for 89.74% of cases. ④ If the external environment is stable, it is expected that the groundwater level in Qiketai Town and the northern irrigation area of the south basin will continue to decline, the groundwater level in Pizhan Township will continue to rise, and the groundwater levels in other areas will show no obvious change. [Conclusion] Groundwater exploitation is the most important factor affecting the change of groundwater level. To control the decline of groundwater level, it will be necessary to further reduce groundwater overexploitation in areas with significant groundwater level declines.