[Objective] Land use change is one of the important driving forces for increasing carbon emissions and the environmental quality. The temporal and spatial pattern changes and effects of land use carbon emissions were analyzed in order to provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of low-carbon development strategies. [Methods] The internal relationships between land use changes and carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity and ecological effect were determined based on gray theory and ecological carrying coefficient by using land use and energy consumption data for 22 counties in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from 1980 to 2020. [Results] ① There was a close correlation between carbon emission changes and land use changes. The correlation between construction land and carbon emissions was the largest (0.95). ② Net carbon emissions of land use types in Ningxia increased by 5.24×10⁷ t and had a growth rate of 625.43% from 1980 to 2020. This pattern was associated with significant increases in construction land area and carbon emissions (average annual rates of 4.42% and 2385.85%, respectively) during the period of 1980—2020. Additionally, grassland area decreased by 2.95×10⁵ hm², and the carbon sink decreased by 5.80×10⁴ t. Forest land was the main carbon sink, accounting for more than 75% of the carbon sink in 2020, and increased with increasing area. ③ The carbon emission intensity of land use in Ningxia increased at an average annual rate of 0.25 t/hm² from 1980 to 2020, and the coverage area of moderate and above grades increased gradually. A spatial distribution pattern of carbon emission intensity for cities along the Yellow River developed higher than observed for the central and southern regions. ④ Due to differences in county economic level and natural environment, the spatial differences in ecological support coefficients of carbon emissions for the 22 counties in Ningxia was obvious, and the distribution pattern of carbon sink capacity was weak in the north and strong in the south. [Conclusion] The carbon emission intensity of land use in Ningxia gradually increased from 1980 to 2020. The carbon ecological capacity of counties along the Yellow River in the north gradually decreased. The carbon ecological capacity of counties in the central and southern regions increased, but the pressure of emission reduction was greater. We recommend optimizing the spatial pattern of construction land, increasing the area of mixed forests, and enhancing forest carbon sink capacity.