Driving factors and decoupling effect of carbon emission from agriculture and animal husbandry: an empirical study of Qinghai Province
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    Abstract:

    [Objective]This study aims to analyze the carbon emission characteristics and driving factors of agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province, and to provide theoretical and empirical evidence for Qinghai government on how to promote scientifically and orderly the green and low-carbon development of agriculture and animal husbandry.[Methods] Carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province during 2000 to 2021 are calculated from consumption of agricultural materials, livestock and poultry breeding, and crop growth. The methods of LMDI and Tapio decoupling models are used to examine the driving factors and decoupling state of carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry, and the future development tendency from 2022 to 2035 is predicted.[Results]①Carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province shows a fluctuating upward trend during 2000 to 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 1.61%. Intestinal fermentation and manure management during livestock and poultry breeding are the main sources of carbon emissions, accounting for 94.94% per year.②The effect of the level of agricultural economic development and agricultural structure can increase the carbon emissions, with the annual contribution rates of 39.40% and 16.53%; The effect of agricultural production technology and agricultural labor force can inhibit the carbon emissions , with the annual contribution rates of -37.45% and -6.63%.③On the whole, the decoupling state between carbon emissions and economic growth of agricultural and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province is in weak decoupling. Agricultural production technology and agricultural labor force scale have weak decoupling efforts, while agricultural structure has no decoupling efforts.④From 2022 to 2035, the carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry shows an increasing trend, with an average annual growth rate of 1.23%, and 0.38% lower than that from 2000 to 2021.[Conclusion]: This study contributes to call the attention of Qinghai government and relevant authorities to achieve low-carbon development in agriculture and animal husbandry. Some useful suggestions are put forward as follows: enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of farmland soil, reduce the intensity of intestinal methane emissions from livestock and poultry products, strengthen the leadership of carbon reduction and fixation technology in agriculture and animal husbandry, cultivate high-quality talents in agriculture and animal husbandry.

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History
  • Received:September 28,2023
  • Revised:December 13,2023
  • Adopted:December 16,2023
  • Online: June 27,2024