Correlation and Predictive Analysis of Green GDP Accounting Based on System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting
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X196;F062.2

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    Abstract:

    [Objective] The interaction between environmental variables and economy was determined. The relationship between green GDP (GGDP) and GDP and future trend were studied, and the feasibility of replacing GDP with GGDP as a policy indicator was analyzed in order to promote the implementation of sustainable development. [Methods] Based on system of integrated environmental and economic accounting (SEEA), the correlations between environmental factors and GDP were determined for six representative countries differing in economic structure, development level, and policy system. A univariate linear regression equation was used to fit and analyze the GDP and GGDP of each country. The ARIMA, Holt-Winters, and grayscale GM (1,1) models were used to predict and analyze the GGDP and GDP data, and the optimal prediction results were analyzed by comparing the model errors. [Results] In the early stage of economic development, GDP showed a negative correlation with GGDP and environment. With the improvement of sustainable economic structure, the negative correlation gradually eased, and finally achieved recovery, showing a U-shaped trend. The results of the predictive analysis showed that the ARIMA model was best for predicting GDP, and the Holt-Winters model was best for predicting GGDP. Both GDP and GGDP showed a growth trend, but the growth rate of GGDP was not as fast as GDP. [Conclusion] It is suggested that, combined with China’s actual situation, China’s economic accounting indicator should shift from GDP to GGDP, and should increase environmental and economic investment, thereby achieving sustainable economic, social, and environmental development, and building a resource-saving and environment-friendly sustainable development society.

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董涵,邹明华,李露,李艳.基于SEEA的绿色GDP核算相关性及预测分析[J].水土保持通报英文版,2024,44(2):187-195,204

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History
  • Received:June 07,2023
  • Revised:September 14,2023
  • Adopted:
  • Online: June 05,2024
  • Published: