[Objective] The long-term vegetation growth status and driving mechanism in the Baiyangdian watershed were assessed in order to provide theoretical support for further protection of the ecological environmental quality in the Xiongan New Area. [Methods] Based on the net primary productivity (NPP) data of NASA MOD17A3H from 2007 to 2020, we used trend analysis, coefficient of variation, Hurst index, and geographical detector to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of vegetation NPP, change trends, and driving factors in the Baiyangdian basin. [Results] ① The mean annual NPP values for vegetation in the Baiyangdian basin varied from 217.1 to 357.6 g/(m²·a), with a spatial distribution pattern of higher in the northwestern mountainous areas and lower in the southeastern plains; ② More than 80% of the vegetation NPP in the study area had obvious fluctuations, with the strongest fluctuations in the northwestern mountainous areas and the southeastern plains; ③The vast majority of vegetation NPP tended to increase over the years, and gradually transitioned from a non-significant to a significant increase from southeast to northwest; ④ Within the study area, the north-western region was a reverse persistence area with Hurst index less than 0.5. Future vegetation NPP may have the problem of slowing down the increasing trend. The southwestern region was a positive persistence area with a favorable trend of future changes; ⑤ The dominant drivers of vegetation NPP spatial differentiation in the study area were temperature, population, tertiary industry, etc. The influence of the two-factor interaction was significantly higher than that of a single factor, with the strongest interaction between precipitation and temperature. [Conclusions] During 2007—2020, the vegetation NPP in the Baiyangdian Basin has gradually increased. Although temperature was the main driving factor affecting the spatial differentiation of NPP, the role played by social factors has been gradually increasing.