[Objective] The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use patterns and habitat quality in Zhengzhou City were determined and future development trends were predicted in order to provide a theoretical reference for regional ecological conservation practices and sustainable development. [Methods] The PLUS model and InVEST model were combined with ArcGIS spatial analysis and the geo-spectrum information method to analyze land use changes in Zhengzhou City from 2000 to 2020, and to simulate the spatial distribution pattern under a baseline scenario and an ecological protection scenario in 2030. The spatial and temporal evolution laws of habitat quality and the migration status were then determined at the pixel scale. [Results] ① From 2000 to 2020, cultivated land and construction land were the main land use types in Zhengzhou City. Over the past 20 years, the area of construction land increased sharply by 15.76%, coming mainly from cultivated land. ② The PLUS model was applicable in Zhengzhou City. Compared with the baseline scenario, the expansion of construction land was limited, and the total amount of ecological land increased under the ecological protection scenario, which could provide a reference for promoting ecological construction in the study area. ③ Habitat quality degraded continuously, with significant spatial distribution differences, from 2000 to 2020. High habitat quality areas were consistently located in Gongyi and Dengfeng City, and low and medium-low map units transferred to each other most frequently. ④ In 2030, the pattern of “higher in the west and lower in the east” will continue. Under the ecological protection scenario, habitat quality was characterized by “decrease in low values and increase in high values”, and the transfer rate to the high and medium-high grades increased to 14.44%, showing a stable and positive development trend compared with the baseline scenario. [Conclusion] The spatial and temporal distribution of habitat quality in Zhengzhou City was closely related to land use changes. The study area should focus on the rational layout of national spatial structure, enhance the efficiency of land use, and improve the quality and stability of ecosystems in the future.