[Objective] The changes in land cover and carbon stock of the Hangzhou Chengxi Sci-tech Innovation Corridor through high-resolution remote sensing images were analyzed and the development trend of carbon stock under the constraints of the “three zones and three lines” achievements was predicted to provide scientific basis for the optimization of national land space and ecological development of new urban centers. [Methods] Based on four periods of land cover data from 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2023, the GeoSoS-FLUS model was used to simulate both past and future changes in land cover under five different scenarios: the natural growth, extreme construction and development, extreme agricultural production, ecological function services, and urban-rural integration development scenarios up to the year 2035. The model was used as a framework to calculate the changes in carbon stock under the simulated scenarios from 2010 to 2023 and from 2023 to 2035, respectively. [Results] ① The carbon stock of Chengxi Sci-tech Innovation Corridor showed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2023, with a total change of 1 720.69 t, where the carbon stock of vegetation, soil, and water increased to approximately 913.67 t, 566.18 t, and 240.84 t, respectively. ② The internal type transformation of cultivated land resulted in a decrease of 119.33 t in soil carbon stock, while the internal type transformation of forest land accounted for 39.50% of the total change in carbon stock. ③ In the natural growth and ecological function services scenarios, forest land growth was relatively significant, while in the extreme construction and development and extreme agricultural production scenarios, the land cover types were more stable. In the urban-rural integration development scenario, through reasonable replacement between cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and other land cover types, other land cover types obtained greater development space. ④ During 2023—2035, carbon stock will rise by 898.74 t under the natural growth scenario, 538.58 t under the extreme construction and development scenario, 517.45 t under the extreme agricultural production scenario, 813.09 t under the ecological function services scenario, and 356.91 t under the urban-rural integration development scenario. [Conclusion] Development under the constraint of control lines could effectively guarantee the carbon sequestration capacity of cities. Reasonable transformation of land cover types and internal structural adjustments can provide more space for the development of new urban centers.