[Objective] The shifts of land use gravity centers and carbon emission change and the influencing factors of land-use carbon emissions in the Chengdu Plain were analyzed to provide theoretical and data support for the low-carbon development of the area. [Methods] Based on multi-source data, the barycenter model and IPCC carbon emission coefficient method were used to elucidate the changes in the land use gravity centers and carbon emissions in the Chengdu Plain from 2006 to 2022. Partial least squares regression analysis and the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) model were used to explore the primary factors influencing cultivated and construction land carbon emissions. A patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate future land use patterns and carbon emissions. [Results] ① In terms of land use types, the gravity centers of cultivated land, water area, construction land, and unused land shifted 4.23, 5.46, 8.44 km, and 31.58 km to the northeast, respectively, and forest land and grassland shifted 11.12 km and 3.41 km to the southeast. The gravity centers of major food crops, rice and corn, moved 15.47 km and 7.52 km to the northeast, respectively, whereas that of wheat moved 17.77 km to the southwest. ② From 2006 to 2022, the land use carbon emissions of 33 counties in the Chengdu Plain showed an upward trend, with a total increase of 1.36×10⁷ tons; and the carbon sinks continued to decline, with a total reduction of 5.68×10⁵ tons. ③ Under the natural, carbon sink, and carbon emission reduction scenarios, the carbon emissions from land use reduced by 5.39×10⁵, 3.47×10⁵, 4.53×10⁵ tons, respectively, comparing with those in 2022. [Conclusion] During the study period, a significant loss of cultivated land was observed in the Chengdu Plain; most of it was converted to construction land in the central part of the Chengdu Plain and forest land in the Longmen Mountains, Longquan Mountains, and Leshan City. In the future, the protection of cultivated land should be strengthened necessary. Carbon emissions from land use in 33 counties showed an obvious rising trend; however, the primary influencing factors are different. Therefore, source reduction and sequestration measure should be implemented according to local conditions.