[Purpose] Under the "dual carbon" background, agriculture, as a significant source of carbon emissions, has substantial potential for emission reduction that cannot be overlooked. [Method] Based on provincial panel data from 30 provinces (regions) in China from 2012 to 2022, the article systematically analyzes the impact of agricultural new quality productivity on agricultural carbon emissions using econometric models such as the Kernel density model, spatial Durbin model, and spatial attenuation model. [Conclusion]: (1) Agricultural new quality productivity can significantly reduce agricultural carbon emissions. Specifically, when all control variables are included, for every 1% increase in the development level of agricultural new quality productivity, agricultural carbon emissions will decrease by 1.601%. (2) From a spatial perspective, the improvement of agricultural new quality productivity has a significant spatial spillover effect. (3) Urbanization level and government support have different moderating effects on the ability of agricultural new quality productivity to inhibit agricultural carbon emissions. (4) The carbon reduction effect of agricultural new quality productivity exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with more pronounced effects in western regions, major grain-producing areas, and areas northwest of the Hu Huanyong Line.